I have recently spent several weeks in Australia and New
Zealand. One topic raised by many of
those I met was the result of June’s UK referendum on EU membership. People in the Antipodes are very interested
in what is happening, and also what it means to them. Being 18000 kilometres away also lends some
perspective to anyone from Europe with views on the referendum outcome.
The attitude of almost all I spoke to was bafflement. Why was the UK about to quit the European
Union? What did the British think about
the future of trading relationships? Had
people in Britain reverted to a ‘little Englander’ mentality? Everyone to whom I posed the question “how
would you have voted” said they would have wanted to stay in the EU – and I
only posed that question to those of British extraction (of whom I met a
number, perhaps inevitably more in New Zealand than Australia). There was also some amazement at the way in
which old Commonwealth ties with Australia and New Zealand seemed to have been
brought into some of the Brexiteers’ arguments – “Australia is keen to sign a
free trade agreement with the UK” and so on.
If we look at the trade data we can see that the economic
world has changed. Statistics from the
Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) for 2014 show that
Germany is a bigger gross partner in goods than the UK – at twice the level of
exports to Australia, although the UK imports more. But in total, trade flows between the UK and
Australia are worth AUS $ 10 million each year,
whilst the value is AUS $ 18 millions with
Germany. The picture for New Zealand is
not that different. In total 6% of New
Zealand’s exports are to the UK – but a further 8% are to the rest of the
European Union. Trade with the UK is
just not that important now for either of Britain’s traditional cousin
countries in the Antipodes. In relation
to Australian exports of goods, Britain lies in 8th place as a
consumer, after China, Japan, South Korea, the USA, Singapore, New Zealand, and
Malaysia. And amongst countries
exporting goods to Australia the UK lies in 10th place – after
China, the USA, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Germany, Malaysia, Thailand, and
New Zealand.
The UK holds a slightly more important place in New Zealand trade
– the UK is the fifth biggest buyer of New Zealand goods and services (after
Australia, China, the USA and Japan), but it falls down the ranks of those
exporting to New Zealand, coming after those four countries but also Germany,
South Korea and Malaysia.
Over half of Australia’s exports are minerals and raw materials –
and the country that is hungriest for these is China. New Zealand’s exports are more orientated to
agricultural products – but once again the prime market is China, particularly
after scandals there over contaminated milk led to increased demand for ‘pure’
products from a reliable source: I saw a huge new milk powder factory on the
Canterbury Plains near Christchurch built specifically for this purpose.
Australia and New Zealand have re-orientated their economies since
the old days of Imperial Preference. The
notion of a Commonwealth free trade area has been raised at various
Commonwealth Heads of Government meetings over many years – and was raised
again in support of arguments for Brexit.
But today’s reality for Australia and New Zealand is that trade
agreements with nearby Asian countries are of considerably greater
significance.
But the bafflement on the part of the people I met in Australia
and New Zealand was not just about economic factors. Many people in Britain still see Australia
(and more particularly New Zealand) as a version of England. Older people in the UK (more likely than the
younger population to vote to leave the European Union) still remember the £10
passage and the ‘White Australia’ policy (which was actually abandoned 50 years
ago in 1966) which helped to preserve an English flavour to the country. But although those of English ethnicity
remain the biggest minority group in Australia, the total of the next seven
groups (Irish, Scottish, Italian, German, Chinese, Indian, and Greek) outweighs
the English. Australia is more of a
multicultural society than many people imagine – and whilst elements of the
population still look to the UK as some distant version of ‘home’, many others
look to Italy or Greece, Ireland or Germany.
They are anxious about what a British separation from the rest of the
European Union might mean.
This seems to be acutely felt in New Zealand where, in a small
country (in terms of population) there has been a long tradition of young
people gaining ‘OE’ – overseas experience.
There are even government web sites providing advice on how to make the
most of an extended period of working abroad.
The UK, and particularly London, has traditionally been the main base
for OE – in part because of the ease with which it can be used as a base for
trips to visit other parts of Europe.
But, as one taxi driver put it to me, if travel between London and the
rest of Europe becomes more bureaucratically encompassed then perhaps young New
Zealanders will look elsewhere for their ‘OE’.
In fact they are already doing so.
More and more are visiting China, Vietnam or other parts of East
Asia. And that is a reasonable
reflection of geopolitical and social realities for both Australia and New
Zealand. As with their trade flows, and
patterns of inward investment, they are now orientated to the rest of the west
Pacific rim – and much less to a distant Europe. I was particularly impressed by the
dependence of the New Zealand tourist industry on Chinese visitors - I encountered many more Chinese than
English, for example. And in many places
in New Zealand leaflets are now being produced in Mandarin as the principal
second language.
So in both Australia and New Zealand there is surprise at the
outcome of the UK’s June referendum on EU membership: surprise based on a
feeling that many in Britain are harking back to a vision of a past series of
relationships that has now been drastically transformed. Connections with the UK (except perhaps over
cricket and rugby) are not the priority that they once were.
But perhaps the perception of the UK from the Antipodes has itself
been affected by the referendum debate.
When one Australian tourist I met in New Zealand found out where I was
from she exclaimed “England? Isn't that full of blacks (sic) now?” Thus populist political
rhetoric reaches the other side of the world.